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Is the global economy in the early stages of a vigorous upturn? Yes, and here’s why
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September 2021 was a taper tantrum month for global equities. An extraordinarily rapid turnaround in economic activity around the world has caused an excess of demand over supply seemingly across the board. This has given an appearance of chaos and the ghost of inflation has been spotted everywhere. Even the Bank of England governor has warned that interest rates may need to be raised to control it.
Really? We don’t think so. Our view is that the global economy is rebounding strongly. Supplies and supply chains are stretched and the moderator or rationeer is the pricing mechanism. Rising prices for goods and services are signalling supply/demand imbalances. The solution is to increase supply. That will come if business feels confident enough via a capex expansion which increases the productive capacity and, hence size, of the economy. Happy days! That is what we all want. Putting up interest rates to restrain demand has the opposite effect. It adds cost, reduces demand, and demotivates capex, promoting a static economy. The price of money (interest rates) is governed by supply relative to demand, like everything else, not by absolute levels of demand.
In the US, the September 2021 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 61.1%1, the 16th consecutive month of growth. (PMI’s2 are economic indicators derived from private sector companies and a reading above 50 is an expansion). It showed new orders, employment, and production growing; exports and imports growing and prices increasing. A recent McKinsey Global survey showed just over half of respondents in North America and Europe had increased investment in new technologies over 2020, and about 75% said they expected that to accelerate in the period 2020-24. Companies digitized activities 20-25 times faster than they had previously thought possible. All very vibrant.
And yet, at the time of writing, the 30-year US treasury rate stands at c.2.03%3. That implies adequate supply of money relative to reinvigorated demand. A good indicator of consumer price inflation is unit labour costs which have two inputs: wages and productivity. Production and non-supervisory workers in the US saw average hourly earnings grow almost 5% year-on-year in July and August for example. But if productivity also accelerates, unit labour costs, and so prices, can remain stable. And it is. Labour productivity growth in the US and the Eurozone averaged around 1% from 2013-2018 and has now leapt. In the US, it grew an average of 3% in the first half of 2021. Unit labour costs fell 0.8% during the same period4.
This suggests to us that the global economy is in the early stages of a vigorous upturn in demand and our exposure in the VT Downing Global Investors Fund to the basic materials and inputs needed to enable that has risen recently.
The VT Downing Global Investors Fund was launched in March 2020. Since launch, the price of F share class accumulation units has increased by 67.4% to the end of September 2021. In comparison, the IA Global Total Return returned 54.1% over the same period5.
Risk warning: Opinions expressed represent the views of the fund manager at the time of publication, are subject to change, and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Please refer to the latest full Prospectus and KIID before investing; your attention is drawn to the risk, fees and taxation factors contained therein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Capital is at risk. Investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Investments in this fund should be held for the long term and are higher risk compared to investments solely in larger, more established companies.
This document is for information only and does not form part of a direct offer or invitation to purchase, subscribe for or dispose of securities and no reliance should be placed on it. Downing does not offer investment or tax advice or make recommendations regarding investments. Downing is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference No. 545025). Registered in England No. OC341575. Registered Office: St Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HD.
Downing LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 545025). Registered in England and Wales (No. OC341575). Registered Office: 6th Floor, St Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HD.
[1] Institute for Supply Management®, October 01 2021
