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Is the global economy in the early stages of a vigorous upturn? Yes, and here’s why
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Downing
Downing launches new actively managed liquid alternatives fund aiming to deliver 7% to 10%+ per annum and positive returns in most markets. The new MGTS Downing Active Defined Return Assets Fund (‘Active Defined Returns’, the ‘Fund’), is the first fund from its new Liquid Alternatives team.
The Fund is aimed at institutional investors, Discretionary Fund Managers, IFAs and advised sophisticated individual investors, and will primarily consist of UK Government bonds and large-cap equity index options, which provide significant scalability and strong liquidity. It aims to deliver 7% to 10%+ per annum and positive returns in all markets except for a sustained equity market fall (generally more than 35%), over a period of at least six years.
The Fund is the first to be launched by the new Liquid Alternatives Team established by Downing. Collectively, the team has over 125 years of experience and sector knowledge, and includes Tony Stenning, who held senior roles at BlackRock and most recently was CEO of Atlantic House Group; Russell Catley, founder and also a former CEO of Atlantic House Group; Huw Price, a former Executive Director at Santander Asset Management, and Paul Adams, former Head of Cash Equities and Derivatives Sales, Royal Bank of Canada.
The Fund offers investors a compelling building block for multi-asset portfolios, aiming to add consistent and predictable returns, typically secured with a portfolio of UK Government bonds. The unique proposition includes a hybrid approach of using systematic derivative strategies and active management, combining liquid investments with predictable returns, and an equity like risk profile.
Investment strategy: Maximising the probability of delivering predictable defined returns across the economic cycle.
Systematic Liquid Derivatives: Systematic, derivative strategies optimise the equity risk-return profile. The Fund uses rules-based derivative strategies linked to the most liquid, large-cap global equity indices (i.e. FTSE100, S&P500) with the aim of harvesting well-proven consistent returns across a wide corridor of market conditions.
Strong security: The Fund will hold a high-quality portfolio of assets as secure collateral – typically UK Government bonds.
Active benefits: At times, rules-based, passive derivative strategies can underperform when markets move strongly – this is when specialist active management can add incremental gains by monitoring and monetising positions and applying active risk management.
Key benefits
Increased consistency and predictability of returns: Positive returns in all markets except for a sustained equity market fall of more than 35% over at least six years.
Diversification of risk: The Fund’s risk components are diversified across large, liquid equity indices, observation levels and counterparties. Secured with high-quality assets – typically UK Government bonds.
Active management: Our experienced team will actively manage the Fund and its investments to optimise risk and reward for investors.
Russell Catley, Head of Retail, Liquid Alternatives at Downing, said: “Put simply, we focus your investment risk on the probability of receiving the returns you need, not those you don’t. We target the highest probability of delivering 7% to 10%+ per annum with active management adding material incremental gains. We believe that we are building the next evolution of the proven success of Defined Returns funds
The Downing team isseeing strong demand from clients looking for alternatives to large-cap equity funds which are becoming concentrated in technology stocks, or alternatives to UK equity income funds and illiquid alternatives.”
Tony Stenning, Head of Liquid Alternatives at Downing, said: “The launch of our Active Defined Return Assets Fund is a significant milestone in the ambitious build-out of our new Liquid Alternatives strategies. It is a solution-focused fund that should deliver stable high single or low double-digit returns across a wide spectrum of equity market conditions, except for a persistent multi-year bear market. The Fund is designed to enhance balanced portfolios by providing consistent, predictable returns and is suitable for accumulation or drawdown.
“We aim to deliver a unique combination of proven systematic derivative strategies and specialist active management, and we are doing so at a very compelling fee level, below our closest competitors and in line with active ETFs.”
How the Fund is expected to perform in different markets
In bullish markets: UK Government bonds secure the capital, and the equity index options deliver a predictable 7-10%+ return per annum – giving up some less likely upside.
In neutral markets and normal market corrections: UK Government bonds secure the capital, and the index options deliver a predictable 7-10%+ return per annum.
In a sustained sell-off: if markets fall more than the cover to capital loss and do not recover for six years. Then capital is eroded 1:1 in line with the worst performing index.
The average Cover to Capital Loss is targeted at 35%: the average cover to capital loss represents the average level the Global indices within the Fund could fall before capital is at risk.
Fund key risks
Performance: Capital is at risk. Investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Liquidity: Access to capital is always subject to liquidity.
Counterparty risk: Other parties could default on the contractual obligations.
Fund Structure
UK regulated OEIC fund structure, fully UCITS compliant
Daily dealing, at published NAV
Minimum investment: £100,000
SRRI: 6 out of 7
Depositary: Bank of New York
Authorised corporate Director (‘ACD’): Margetts Fund Management Ltd.
I share-class: SEDOL: BM8J604 / ISIN: GB00BM8J6044
F share-class: SEDOL: BM8J615 / ISIN: GB00BM8J6150
Risk warning: Opinions expressed represent the views of the fund manager at the time of publication, are subject to change, and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Please refer to the latest full Prospectus and KIID before investing; your attention is drawn to the risk, fees and taxation factors contained therein. Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Capital is at risk. Investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Investments in this fund should be held for the long term.
Important notice: This document is intended for professional investors and has been approved as a financial promotion in line with Section 21 of the FSMA by Downing LLP (“Downing”). This document is for information only and does not form part of a direct offer or invitation to purchase, subscribe for or dispose of securities and no reliance should be placed on it. Downing does not offer investment or tax advice or make recommendations regarding investments. Downing is a trading name of Downing LLP. Downing LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference No. 545025). Registered in England and Wales (No. OC341575). Registered Office: 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
September 2021 was a taper tantrum month for global equities. An extraordinarily rapid turnaround in economic activity around the world has caused an excess of demand over supply seemingly across the board. This has given an appearance of chaos and the ghost of inflation has been spotted everywhere. Even the Bank of England governor has warned that interest rates may need to be raised to control it.
Really? We don’t think so. Our view is that the global economy is rebounding strongly. Supplies and supply chains are stretched and the moderator or rationeer is the pricing mechanism. Rising prices for goods and services are signalling supply/demand imbalances. The solution is to increase supply. That will come if business feels confident enough via a capex expansion which increases the productive capacity and, hence size, of the economy. Happy days! That is what we all want. Putting up interest rates to restrain demand has the opposite effect. It adds cost, reduces demand, and demotivates capex, promoting a static economy. The price of money (interest rates) is governed by supply relative to demand, like everything else, not by absolute levels of demand.
In the US, the September 2021 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 61.1%1, the 16th consecutive month of growth. (PMI’s2 are economic indicators derived from private sector companies and a reading above 50 is an expansion). It showed new orders, employment, and production growing; exports and imports growing and prices increasing. A recent McKinsey Global survey showed just over half of respondents in North America and Europe had increased investment in new technologies over 2020, and about 75% said they expected that to accelerate in the period 2020-24. Companies digitized activities 20-25 times faster than they had previously thought possible. All very vibrant.
And yet, at the time of writing, the 30-year US treasury rate stands at c.2.03%3. That implies adequate supply of money relative to reinvigorated demand. A good indicator of consumer price inflation is unit labour costs which have two inputs: wages and productivity. Production and non-supervisory workers in the US saw average hourly earnings grow almost 5% year-on-year in July and August for example. But if productivity also accelerates, unit labour costs, and so prices, can remain stable. And it is. Labour productivity growth in the US and the Eurozone averaged around 1% from 2013-2018 and has now leapt. In the US, it grew an average of 3% in the first half of 2021. Unit labour costs fell 0.8% during the same period4.
This suggests to us that the global economy is in the early stages of a vigorous upturn in demand and our exposure in the VT Downing Global Investors Fund to the basic materials and inputs needed to enable that has risen recently.
The VT Downing Global Investors Fund was launched in March 2020. Since launch, the price of F share class accumulation units has increased by 67.4% to the end of September 2021. In comparison, the IA Global Total Return returned 54.1% over the same period5.
Risk warning: Opinions expressed represent the views of the fund manager at the time of publication, are subject to change, and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Please refer to the latest full Prospectus and KIID before investing; your attention is drawn to the risk, fees and taxation factors contained therein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Capital is at risk. Investments and the income derived from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Investments in this fund should be held for the long term and are higher risk compared to investments solely in larger, more established companies.
This document is for information only and does not form part of a direct offer or invitation to purchase, subscribe for or dispose of securities and no reliance should be placed on it. Downing does not offer investment or tax advice or make recommendations regarding investments. Downing is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Firm Reference No. 545025). Registered in England No. OC341575. Registered Office: St Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HD.
Downing LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 545025). Registered in England and Wales (No. OC341575). Registered Office: 6th Floor, St Magnus House, 3 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HD.
[1] Institute for Supply Management®, October 01 2021
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